I was asked by the Guild to post my suggestions here, about the variables that might need to be taken into account in a "sensitivity-analysis"-type spreadsheet exercise to assess the continuing feasibility of the withdrawn Monastery void sim proposal -- or any other similarly-designed expansion sim that CDS might want to consider.
1. Assume seven rental parcel size per the last data provided by Arria Perrault. Assume no problems with "activity" limits. (Although these are open questions, they're policy issues, not economic ones.)
2. Assume new announced void sim price.
3. Assume double prims, or as close as the math in #1 allows, after reserving a common prim allowance for (a) landscaping, (b) an activity load margin and (c) hub features. (I suggest we use Alpine Meadows numbers, as that's a close fit to the scenic intent .. but cut down the number of primmy bridges to one.)
4. Assume a CDS tier rental rate that is proportionately equal, per prim, to the rate we use in LA.
5. Assume that the average CDS occupancy rate (counting only paying parcels as occupied) over the last 6 months will apply to Sim 5.
6. Assume that the purchase price for Sim 5 is "a wash", and nets out to no significant permanent cost to CDS.
A. Project the revenue. Does it cover our tier to Lindens (break-even) for that void sim?
B. If not, what rental tier rate would break even on SIm 5?
C. Would the rental tier rates in A (and B if relevant) pull up, or down, the 5-sim-wide average rental tier per prim?
D. Change occupancy to assume that 1/2 of the buyers are current CDS citizens and 1/2 of those will sell other comparable CDS parcels when they move to Sim 5. (In other words, occupancy in the other sims is reduced from current average levels by 1/4 of the new rentable space in Sim 5.) Recompute 5-sim occupancy rate and Sim 5 break-even.
E. Change occupancy to assume that 1/2 of the buyers will sell other comparable parcels when they move to Sim 5. (In other words, occupancy in the other sims is reduced from current average levels by 1/2 of the new rentable space in Sim 5.) Recompute 5-sim occupancy rate and Sim 5 break-even.
F. Recompute (A) using the OLD void sim price .. what would happen if Lindens rescind the price change?
This is asking for a lot. It's kind of Sudane to even consider assisting the Guild and CDS in this detailed manner.
However, these are the kinds of planning that any wise custodian must use I assure you that the successful large estate owners in SL do this kind of analysis, and more, as a minimum precaution to assure success and solvency.
I'll be happy to help with spreadsheets if needed, to make it a shared burden.
Finally, I suggest we ask Sudane, as Treasurer, two other questions:
G. Do items 4, A, B, C and D suggest that there's some obvious price at which CDS could harmonize per-prim rental tier prices across the 5 sims?
H. Does the assumption in item 5 (next year will be like the last 6 months, for rental tier) appear to be a sound guess?
Thanks & regards Jamie
